Project-iM@S
THE iDOLM@STER => THE iDOLM@STER 2 => Topic started by: Kotakoni on December 02, 2011, 07:18:40 pm
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I do not remember if this is against the rules or not, but everyone please help, make this a sticky on ALL boards! NISA may be able to help us with Sony the copyright bullies!
http://nisamerica.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=7847
When the poll is released, please help by voting towards this goal, please make this a sticky on ALL boards and a sticky on the index so that everyone passing through can see this and help by posting what they think!
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Scamco doesn't need your money :-[
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There's another thread started in July http://nisamerica.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=5751
I think NISA tends to do only its own games (Nippon Ichi) and maybe some published by Gust? I think it would be difficult to try and gain the rights of a Bandai Namco game. Judging by the responses in the thread, Namco tends to hang onto their properties, regardless of whether they want to license it themselves or not.
But of course I do support getting to play imas in English (but text and menus only, LOL, don't translate the voices or the songs -- but I thought I might have read about some other requirement that mandates an English track be available ... though the Yakuza series was able to get around that somehow).
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They've relaxed that rule: See Fate/EXTRA for a very recent example of no English voice track.
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I would like to see it localized. With only text in english as well because the songs are great just the way they are...and at a reasonable price. LOL XD
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I would like to see someone try English dubbing the songs, personally. If Mikutan is popular because of her English fandubs, then I'm sure Namco or Nisa or whoever controls the actual dubbing would do a good job.
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I think IM@S would have a decent chance localized, but maybe as a PSN exclusive game. look at the recent corpse party; a niche visual novel that kept it's Japanese audio but still came out lookin' fine and with great reviews, too!
If it did get dubbed then I would want an option to switch between audio, just sayin'
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Namco localizes their own games.
*barf*
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Namco localizes their own games.
In other words, Namco never localize their games they believe will not sell overseas (iDOLM@STER is one of them). They also will not allow outside companies to touch their games barring very rare exceptions, such as Tales of Symphonia and Tales of Phantasia (GBA).
I wouldn't bet on it. Half-Life 2: Episode 3 will come out before this is announced to have a localization. Feel free to quote me on this; I believe this might come back to bite me later. I'd rather not have to re-buy all of my DLCs as well.
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I wouldn't bet on it. Half-Life 2: Episode 3 will come out before this is announced to have a localization.
This is the truth. Now, if only these words would make Valve get a move on..
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There's a number of reasons why NBGI won't do a im@s 2 release outside of Japan. You can fan rage over this as much as you like, but this doesn't change reality.
I had the luck to lunch with an NBGI exec and slugged it out for an hour (via translator) over the business case over it about fifteen months ago (just im@s 2 X360), over the business case. (He's a friend of mine, but it doesn't mean I don't spare him any quarter. Journalists don't generally do that, and besides, he likes me and finds me interesting because I challenge him a lot and I'm just a touch audacious.)
Some of the reasons can change rather quickly, others are more difficult (and require more time.) I'm only going to bother outlining the biggest reason why the business case will NEVER, EVER work as it stands.
- At the time, DLC sale rates for im@s L4U were about 20% of the whole catalog on average per copy (Bear in mind, that this is an average revenue, and M@D requesters generally get virtually everything, skewering these stats.) Considering it platinumed, and there sold about 70000MS points (Before everything went to 50% off), you can probably do the math at about 120-140US for 7000 MS points. (If you're wondering, it's only, uh, about $1000-1200 US total, or at the percentages $200-280US on top of EVERY COPY EVER SOLD. Mull those figures for a bit.)
From what info I got, he told me most of it was from songs, which are higher ticket items. He also told me during certain events, the DLC purchase rate spikes. (Some DLC are more popular than others, as you can guess.
(In a later discussion some time later, he told me that the rates of Kyun! Vampire Girl spiked compared to the rest. He didn't tell me how much and challenged me to try dig up the sales rates without him. I've yet to pull that one off accurately, although I do know the number's sufficently scary. *sigh*)
Now, here's the thing. You might want to sit down before you read the figures below.
The game sells for about 7850 yen. (About 100US - Scary, I know.)
The DLC per month sells for 10000-11000 yen (About 150-160 US) PER MONTH. (X360 is slightly cheaper at about 6500 MS points, or just shy of 140US a month)
This is fairly big money, as you can guess, even when you apply the 20%-33% sales rule. (About 2000-3500 yen for every copy sold - Or for reference, about 30-45 dollars US)
It's not much of a secret that NBGI make more from the DLC (it was in 2008/09's NBGI's annual report as a LINE ITEM) than they make from the game. Bear in mind part of the cost inflation is due to the fact that there's a PSN service charge factored into those prices. (And it's higher than the XBLA equilivant that they were charged when they had a deal with MS)
Now, that alone should explain why the business case for a US release is in fact suicide for im@s, but I don't expect everyone to understand it, so I'll explain it in full detail.
The point comes from 3 facts:
a) No one in the US in their right minds would spend 100 US on a locally translated game. There's been significant resistence beyond $60 US. Even though, I might add, the US pays less for a full price retail game than EVERYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD, even to the point of resisting inflation.
(For an idea, the retail price of a new game locally is about 7000-8000 yen (the 100), 90-100 AU (Which in turn is... uh, about 100 US), 30-40 quid (Which in turn is about... 100 US)... you can probably see where this is going.)
b) No one in their right minds would spend 3x the cost of a game PER MONTH on DLC. Over the course of the game, maybe, but it's usually something called an expansion pack - See Disagea 3's DLC, or the numerous other packs.
Even if we kept the cost ratios the same, we'd still be at 1.2x the cost of the game (Give or take a bit). Now if we kept the ratio, we run across a third problem which will (unsurprisingly)blow any attempted business case out of the water.
This point is:
c) If they reduce the DLC by any non trivial amount (Of more than say 10-15%), they will see a MASSIVE, MASSIVE loss in revenue (in the order of 50%+!) as the Japanese market move to to the cheaper market.
Basically this would destroy the im@s revenue stream in its entirety. They sort of need it, since it finances their other promotional operations.
Why is this?
Well, you tell me. If you could import a copy of the game at half price, then pay only 3000-4000 yen importing US PSN cards for something that costs 10000-11000 yen, then why wouldn't you do it? We're only talking a 50-66% discount. Permament, effective immediately.
If you're going to claim 'But it'd be region locked and the Japanese will stay within their own borders' uh... You've been ignoring the entirety of the PS3 discussion here, since uh, the current im@s efforts are people breaking the Japanese ones, barriers or not.
Now if you can look at a business in the eye and tell them "Oh, we want you to lose oh, about 6-10 million US in secured revenue per year to make an unproven unknown size market happy" without the other party telling you rightfully to get the hell lost, I'd be impressed, and would advise you to go into business. (Possibly trying to land the im@s 2 PS3/X360 deal.)
Problem is, to make the game salable (even remotely so) you'd have to keep it to ratios at the very minimum. Namely, $50 for the game /$60 per catalog. (Or for comparison about 3500 yen/4000 yen)
The only way you can make this work is if you can prove that there's a proven 300k people in the US who will buy the game, assuming DLC rates hold and NISA do it for literally nothing.
On a realistic basis (namely NISA or the party doing the translation and localisation work actually get paid for their efforts) to make the same numbers add up, you'd need closer to 350k. If you assume DLC sales rates are half in the US (It wouldn't be a bad analytical estimate) you'd only need to get something closer to 650k in sales to justify losing that guranteed stream. (Because then, the statistics say you're about 66% likely to replace it with US subscribers, and remember, you're going to LOSE virtually ALL of your Japanese fanbase at those discount rates!)
Now, if you can prove that there's a decent chance of that fanbase magically showing up immediately, please let me know. I've been unable to prove there's a chance inside six standard deviations or so (Namely more than 0.005% and I've TRIED it using the statistics I have) that it'd happen.
You'd need it to basically be a megablockbuster right off the bat, rivalling the likes of say Battlefield 3 or something. You'd need significant cutthrough and well...
For the tl;dr crowd, just read the lovely line bolded, underlined and in red. That should explain why it won't happen.
There's OTHER reasons (cultural and other brand concerns) but the business case note as per above is the big hurdle. They report all their earnings in yen, which in turn causes further issues.
The easiest way to fix this problem is actually pretty simple - fix the US economy and actually make it perform well so that the exchange rate is closer to 200 yen to the USD, then they'd be jumping at the bit.
... Although that SOUNDS really easy, even though US congress is struggling so much with it at the moment. But I'm not a US citizen, so that's your problem to solve.
It'd probably be easier to carpet nuclear bomb Japan to destroy its economy if you wanted that result, although this would most likely destroy NBGI in the process, and consequently no further im@s.
I will also note, ironically, it's easier to release it to the rest of the world and skip the US as a market, since the ratios would actually hold and the costs would be more or less similar. (Australia would be a good example of this - the cost of games is about the same as the Japanese counterparts after exchange rates.)
Namely after exchange rates, the discount would be only about 5-10%, or basically, any attempts to import will lose that margin due to the fact middlemen and logistics would eat into the savings, making it a bit of a moot point.
Then again, it may not be worth the initial investment - If we saw 10k copies of im@s 2 sell in Australia, I'd actually be impressed, and the profits wouldn't offset the costs involved in translating and bringing the game over.
Take it as you will, but until you address the point in red, no way in hell. You're asking NBGI to bet destroying their franchise just to make an unknown market happy.
Edit: Oh I forgot the other counter argument.
They could make the business case work, ONCE the game is completed and the DLC discount rates are applied to im@s 2.
There's only one problem with that.
Live for you applied this discount rate in late 2010.
When did the game come out? Uh, Spring 2007!
The catalogs completed in late 2009/early 2010 from memory.
Essentially the only way to surmount this business case is to wait literally, 2 and a half years after release, or more accurately about 9 to 12 months after the last Japanese catalog finished.
It's an easier swallow, but would a two and a half year old game be an easy sell? Well, NISA got burnt after dealing with STV, so they're not that eager to get into that...
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@Setsuna:
Wow, I'm impressed that you were able to talk to a NBGI executive. So is this what you're saying?
-NGBI makes most of its iM@S revenue from the DLC, which is VERY profitable.
-If iM@S were to be localized in the US, their revenue would be taking a huge blow for these reasons:
-Importation would be cheaper, which would make NBGI lose the majority of its customers because of the discount afforded, leading to the second point
-Earnings are counted in yen, and exchange rates between the dollar and yen are terrible (with 78 yen to 1 USD). This would mean that to set the prices to a point where people would accept the price in the US would equal a loss in revenue, even though there is a Japanese market for the localized game.
-You would need iM@S to be a blockbuster hit in the US to make a profit, something that will definitely not happen.
*There's also the used games market, which will cut into profit, too.
-Even if NBGI skips the US market due to exchange rates being similar to each other, the costs of paying for shipping the game everywhere else in the world, the paying of distributors, etc. would basically negate all profits, since the discount would be too small.
-And the fact is that the rest of the world is an unknown market that may not accept a game like this, and the initial costs would be possibly too high due to lack of interest/ general avoidance due to misunderstandings, cultural differences, etc.
The solutions are also pretty grim, especially considering the fact that while Congress is trying to make the economy better, there's still the matter of lobbyists and special interest groups that want to keep things in their favor. There's probably more to it in order for the US economy to improve.
Ugh, it sucks, but I'd rather not understand everything that is being done in an iM@S game and know that it can live for another day than understand it and know it'll die.
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@Setsuna:
Wow, I'm impressed that you were able to talk to a NBGI executive. So is this what you're saying?
-NGBI makes most of its iM@S revenue from the DLC, which is VERY profitable.
-If iM@S were to be localized in the US, their revenue would be taking a huge blow for these reasons:
-Importation would be cheaper, which would make NBGI lose the majority of its customers because of the discount afforded, leading to the second point
-Earnings are counted in yen, and exchange rates between the dollar and yen are terrible (with 78 yen to 1 USD). This would mean that to set the prices to a point where people would accept the price in the US would equal a loss in revenue, even though there is a Japanese market for the localized game.
-You would need iM@S to be a blockbuster hit in the US to make a profit, something that will definitely not happen.
*There's also the used games market, which will cut into profit, too.
-Even if NBGI skips the US market due to exchange rates being similar to each other, the costs of paying for shipping the game everywhere else in the world, the paying of distributors, etc. would basically negate all profits, since the discount would be too small.
-And the fact is that the rest of the world is an unknown market that may not accept a game like this, and the initial costs would be possibly too high due to lack of interest/ general avoidance due to misunderstandings, cultural differences, etc.
The solutions are also pretty grim, especially considering the fact that while Congress is trying to make the economy better, there's still the matter of lobbyists and special interest groups that want to keep things in their favor. There's probably more to it in order for the US economy to improve.
Ugh, it sucks, but I'd rather not understand everything that is being done in an iM@S game and know that it can live for another day than understand it and know it'll die.
I've been known to be perfectly audacious and ruthless in my methods. For most part though, the executive was here on holiday and I've known him for a while so I forked about 200 AU for the translator (what, you'd think I could get it done free?) offered to pick up the tab, and offered we do lunch one day while he was here. He was probably expecting me to ask where he was going. It was partly business, and more a friendly catchup over coffee.
You're almost right - Basically you can shore it up, but you'd need many more people contributing a smaller amount. (ie. If sales rates are about 4000 yen per copy/month for DLC in Japan, you'd need to get 4 times the number of people buying at 1000 yen per copy per month in DLC in the US to get similar numbers.)
Basically, if the discount is considerable (and it'd have to be to make it platable for a US sale) you'd just have the Japanese buyers just importing, cause the little extra effort compared the savings is worth it.
I did note a scenario that could make this part of the business case work - wait until im@s 2 is complete, done and dusted, and wait for NBGI to half price it as part of their promotion for im@s 3, but you replied before I noted that.
Thing is, it'd be a clean 2-2.5 years before this happens. I don't know what the business case for THAT may be, although NISA did get burnt by STV which was in a similar situation (Massively popular in Japan as a franchise, and did poorly in the US), which would make it leery to such a deal.
In other places it MAY be worth eating a relatively small cost, if they think they could push the brand in other places (say Europe or Australia) for future brand establishment, but there's other reasons why NBGI may not like that particular path (There's other aspects to why NBGI aren't going to do it, at least for now.)
The fact you CAN support JP prices (Or enough OF the Japanese price) in some markets around the world makes it easier for making this case.
In short, you're more likely making a European case for NBGI to licence im@s2 out - it's still an uphill battle though - You'd have to prove the game would sell even there, and that's more difficult than the US - Geographics of the EU pose its own problems, different languages and the like.
There's economic concerns there though, but that's a different story.
Australia simply isn't big enough to justify any promotion or spread, although the other conditions are otherwise fine. (I mean, blockbusters like Modern Warfare 2 sell maybe 700k copies. im@s 2? If you score 10k, I'll applaud because it'd be a very good start, but 10k sales is probably not enough to fund the im@s 2 english translation, let alone the 3-5k you'd reasonably expect.) It'd be a loss maker, unless paired up with Europe.
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I've been known to be perfectly audacious and ruthless in my methods. For most part though, the executive was here on holiday and I've known him for a while so I forked about 200 AU for the translator (what, you'd think I could get it done free?) offered to pick up the tab, and offered we do lunch one day while he was here. He was probably expecting me to ask where he was going. It was partly business, and more a friendly catchup over coffee.
Great, now I'm curious on what you have as an occupation, although I think you said it. Journalist, was it?
You're almost right - Basically you can shore it up, but you'd need many more people contributing a smaller amount. (ie. If sales rates are about 4000 yen per copy/month for DLC in Japan, you'd need to get 4 times the number of people buying at 1000 yen per copy per month in DLC in the US to get similar numbers.)
Basically, if the discount is considerable (and it'd have to be to make it platable for a US sale) you'd just have the Japanese buyers just importing, cause the little extra effort compared the savings is worth it.
Okay, so what I'm getting is that Japanese importers can help, but it would take a lot more US customers to get the same amount of revenue? I'm not so clear on what you're trying to say.
I did note a scenario that could make this part of the business case work - wait until im@s 2 is complete, done and dusted, and wait for NBGI to half price it as part of their promotion for im@s 3, but you replied before I noted that.
Thing is, it'd be a clean 2-2.5 years before this happens. I don't know what the business case for THAT may be, although NISA did get burnt by STV which was in a similar situation (Massively popular in Japan as a franchise, and did poorly in the US), which would make it leery to such a deal.
That would be a good idea, letting it run its course, then importing it. NBGI would already have a good amount of revenue, and the loss would be lessened. Not a lot of Japanese customers would be importing the game, too, since iM@S 3 would be coming along and it would be a waste to get the same game.
But I'm thinking that they would have done that for iM@S 1 at this point.
ST V's localization blunder probably stemmed more for the fact that it was the fifth game in a series that was released at the wrong time. From what I've read, if ST V was released in, say, 2005, it would be received a bit better due to the fact that people were willing to play longer games at that point. It also would have been better recieved had the whole series been allowed to be released before (executive decisions in Sony of America barring the majority of JRPG's and 2D games, which included the first ST). I don't know how well ST V did in Europe or Australia.
In other places it MAY be worth eating a relatively small cost, if they think they could push the brand in other places (say Europe or Australia) for future brand establishment, but there's other reasons why NBGI may not like that particular path (There's other aspects to why NBGI aren't going to do it, at least for now.)
The fact you CAN support JP prices (Or enough OF the Japanese price) in some markets around the world makes it easier for making this case.
In short, you're more likely making a European case for NBGI to licence im@s2 out - it's still an uphill battle though - You'd have to prove the game would sell even there, and that's more difficult than the US - Geographics of the EU pose its own problems, different languages and the like.
There's economic concerns there though, but that's a different story.
Australia simply isn't big enough to justify any promotion or spread, although the other conditions are otherwise fine. (I mean, blockbusters like Modern Warfare 2 sell maybe 700k copies. im@s 2? If you score 10k, I'll applaud because it'd be a very good start, but 10k sales is probably not enough to fund the im@s 2 english translation, let alone the 3-5k you'd reasonably expect.) It'd be a loss maker, unless paired up with Europe.
Huh, I would think a European localization would be really bad right now, mainly because of economic concerns. I'm kinda surprised that Australia could be a starting point, just that there's not enough interest in this.
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Well, I was one, I'm sort of hanging that hat for now. I still do support work on request though, although I invoice. I did more research, which left me in the interview arena, and with an actual contacts list.
Re: US replacing the Japanese stream - Basically the math comes out like this.
If we assume that there's 100k copies and each copy generates 4000 yen per month...
If the new value of each copy is 1000 yen per month, you'd need to sell 4x the amount of copies (it's a little more due to how taxes and the like are calculated, but it'll serve close enough.)
Hope that explains how NBGI would have to replace the revenue stream if it took the loss. (It's how I roughly calculated the costs of bringing the game over to the US and the rough numbers they needed. I'm assuming 50k sales is enough to make it worthwhile + 100k to justify the licencing and extra costs required and to make other stakeholders happy.)
For the flood to not happen, you'd have to do it so late that there's no real risk (namely after im@s 2 is done and dusted, and chain the discount rate to be the standard US rate) but then you run the risk of the Japanese fanbase sitting on their money come im@s 3 (or actually, when another im@s title shows up first.) if they know, unless you deliberately pace it so that the US will be a game behind permamently
But yes, STV is a good case study about what happens when you sit on a game for too long. It's a nice enough game, but essentially, niche, midway through the series (or close to its very end), somewhat dated at the time of its release. It's a recipe for danger if nothing else.
By the time it happens, you'd... uh, see something close to the above applying for im@s 2. (L4U would fall into to this catergory, if we say, released it tomorrow. Im@s 1 looks positively primitive compared to even L4U, so it would definitely be in that catergory.)
Sakura Taisen V never showed up in Australia, if you were curious. It did poorly enough to not be mentioned in NISA's annual report that year for Europe.
But yeah, you're better off trying to gun for a European release - it's almost doable that way. Still risky, but it doesn't entail DLC suicide, at least.
US citizens may be pretty griping about such a move (And still complaining about the price), but the problem is that the US market's been somewhat of an abormality for a while now. It'd be the only way to sanely do it.
I only named Australia as a starting point because it's the most expensive of the English speaking game markets. The game prices went up to 120 AU (120 US!) at one point, which should show that games can sell at those prices.
Sadly, there's significant risks in the US market as well, but it's more likely Europe's going to blow up first. But I don't think that either's particularly safe. (But then again neither is Japan, but like I said, different story.)
Great, now I'm curious on what you have as an occupation, although I think you said it. Journalist, was it?
Okay, so what I'm getting is that Japanese importers can help, but it would take a lot more US customers to get the same amount of revenue? I'm not so clear on what you're trying to say.
That would be a good idea, letting it run its course, then importing it. NBGI would already have a good amount of revenue, and the loss would be lessened. Not a lot of Japanese customers would be importing the game, too, since iM@S 3 would be coming along and it would be a waste to get the same game.
But I'm thinking that they would have done that for iM@S 1 at this point.
ST V's localization blunder probably stemmed more for the fact that it was the fifth game in a series that was released at the wrong time. From what I've read, if ST V was released in, say, 2005, it would be received a bit better due to the fact that people were willing to play longer games at that point. It also would have been better recieved had the whole series been allowed to be released before (executive decisions in Sony of America barring the majority of JRPG's and 2D games, which included the first ST). I don't know how well ST V did in Europe or Australia.
Huh, I would think a European localization would be really bad right now, mainly because of economic concerns. I'm kinda surprised that Australia could be a starting point, just that there's not enough interest in this.
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Well, I was one, I'm sort of hanging that hat for now. I still do support work on request though, although I invoice. I did more research, which left me in the interview arena, and with an actual contacts list.
Re: US replacing the Japanese stream - Basically the math comes out like this.
If we assume that there's 100k copies and each copy generates 4000 yen per month...
If the new value of each copy is 1000 yen per month, you'd need to sell 4x the amount of copies (it's a little more due to how taxes and the like are calculated, but it'll serve close enough.)
Hope that explains how NBGI would have to replace the revenue stream if it took the loss. (It's how I roughly calculated the costs of bringing the game over to the US and the rough numbers they needed. I'm assuming 50k sales is enough to make it worthwhile + 100k to justify the licencing and extra costs required and to make other stakeholders happy.)
For the flood to not happen, you'd have to do it so late that there's no real risk (namely after im@s 2 is done and dusted, and chain the discount rate to be the standard US rate) but then you run the risk of the Japanese fanbase sitting on their money come im@s 3 (or actually, when another im@s title shows up first.) if they know, unless you deliberately pace it so that the US will be a game behind permamently
But yes, STV is a good case study about what happens when you sit on a game for too long. It's a nice enough game, but essentially, niche, midway through the series (or close to its very end), somewhat dated at the time of its release. It's a recipe for danger if nothing else.
By the time it happens, you'd... uh, see something close to the above applying for im@s 2. (L4U would fall into to this catergory, if we say, released it tomorrow. Im@s 1 looks positively primitive compared to even L4U, so it would definitely be in that catergory.)
Sakura Taisen V never showed up in Australia, if you were curious. It did poorly enough to not be mentioned in NISA's annual report that year for Europe.
But yeah, you're better off trying to gun for a European release - it's almost doable that way. Still risky, but it doesn't entail DLC suicide, at least.
US citizens may be pretty griping about such a move (And still complaining about the price), but the problem is that the US market's been somewhat of an abormality for a while now. It'd be the only way to sanely do it.
I only named Australia as a starting point because it's the most expensive of the English speaking game markets. The game prices went up to 120 AU (120 US!) at one point, which should show that games can sell at those prices.
Sadly, there's significant risks in the US market as well, but it's more likely Europe's going to blow up first. But I don't think that either's particularly safe. (But then again neither is Japan, but like I said, different story.)
Ah, okay, I get the stream replacement. But yeah, it's really hard to find a lot of people in the US to replace the stream.
Pretty much, localization is "damned if you do, damned if you don't."