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Messages - Setsuna

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31
i didn't know the F rank tiara could go past lvl 10, but if i didn't make a mistake it will need lvl 27 to tie with the S rank items at lvl 1 (assuming a lvl 10 chronicle bracelet), and lvl 67 (requiring 66 of the accessory lvl up items) to tie with lvl 10 S rank items (requiring a maximum of 18 accessory lvl up items minus whatever you get in drops).

Without heavy cheesing by just letting the game run with automated button presses for days without end, i highly doubt you'll ever get the required amount of accessory lvl up items to make it worth putting them into the F rank tiara.

Mathematically, you're more likely to get the max level tiara before you finish all the DL lives (There's 12 total), given average luck, unless every DL live from now takes the drop model used in the latest live.

It's a deliberate design choice. If you're persistent enough to try and unlock all all the items in the game, you'll ALSO have decent odds getting 98 of the item.

You can also cheat a little to curve this in your favour - You can, with enough persistence, force every single set of bronze card conversions (via mass resetting) to turn into the accessory polisher. (Close the application if the bronze card use doesn't net you the item, and a restart will end you at the beginning of the week.)

So no, you don't need to automate it. You just need to turn up roughly 98*5- (5* every natural accessory upgrade item) bronze cards.

And that is FAR more likely than turning every single item in all the DL lives, surprisingly.

32
In my case
F rank tiara (lvl 1): 9 appeal
Chronicle bracelet (lvl 9): 39 appeal + 20 appeal (skill)

S rank tiara (lvl 3): 52 appeal

Maybe you have vastly different item levels, which means, a way higher level of the F rank tiara, but i never found one apart from the one you get in the beginning.

But with the item levels i have, i need a bracelet with charge level 2 and just 16 appeal to be better off NOT using the F rank tiara for a trio burst. The bracelet from the DL live has 30 appeal at lvl 1.

Edit: The S rank bracelet has 50 appeal at lvl 5. I don't think the F rank tiara and chronicle bracelet at lvl 10 have more appeal than the 2 S rank items even at lvl 1.

The secret of the F rank Tiara is this - it's the only accessory you can't actually ever get from a present - you are given exactly one. The only other items you can't get copies of are the DLC purchasable costumes and accessories (namely the ones from the catalogs) so for most people, it'll stay level 1.

As well, it only gives +1 per item accessory upgrade (if you have the polishing item)

The surprise is this - You can level said item beyond the usual level 10. No one knows what the cap is (We suspect it's 99 actually, but considering that appeal points can be counted in four digits, who knows? Level 999 anyone?) but the S tiara is NOT the strongest accessory (caps at +10, with +2 per level). A level 70 F tiara will have more skills AND will outscore a +10 S rank tiara.

This is the stupidly long game though. I suspect a level 99 tiara is being used for the scoring, but considering the only way to level the item is via present drops, you'll need to be pretty lucky to cap out even by now without present intervention. (It's a drop out of the regular presents and the bronze card draw.)

33
Yes, you understood it correctly. Basically for DL live 1 and 4 you have to beat the D and C rank lives with the incorrect costume type, and the B and A rank live with the costume you received from the C rank. Once you got the S rank costume from the A rank live, you can repeat the A rank live using that S rank costume, making it much easier to beat.

Even for DL live 2 and 3 the costume you get from the C rank is your best bet for the A rank live since they are the only costumes available with a matching costume type AND image (the correct image triples your omoide appeal score). But beating the D and C rank is easier because you already have the correct costume type.

Btw: You can use the costumes from DL live 1 for events requiring a shiny star type costume, and the costumes from DL live 4 for events requiring a genki musume type costume. You get a prompt that you are using the incorrect costume type though, but you still get the score bonus. Maybe the changed something with the patch that was released last night (i didn't have a chance to test it yet).

Also note that if you are really lucky (or you use P-drops to forcibly get lucky) you can actually get the S rank costume before the 4th stage of the DL Live - Gold presents in DL lives have their own drop tables, and yes, as weird as it sounds, you can end up failing a DL live's stage 1, and getting the S rank costume out of that failure, which means you will have the required costume type from the get go.

34
I believe this feature was taken out. I haven't found a way around it yet. A shame really, there are a number of outfits I would of liked to combine together. Maybe if you Platinum the game it'll unlock that feature?

Nope, it's not there at all. I just finally platinum the game, and there's no ability to turn it on.

Incidentally, an update.

504 hours
4012 lives.

Base game + DL live 1, 2, 3 all accessories complete + DL live costume 4 costume complete.

The fun part?

I'm AHEAD of the averages, not behind.

Mull that one over for a bit.

35
If you want to sell extras (usually cause you hit max level of the items in question and combining more is pointless):

Go to the p-pad (far right option, the options) and select the first tab (the one that has a diamond in it, top left option on the pad).

You'll see your items.

The L1/R1 tabs will move between items, costumes, and accessories.

Select the costume/accessory that you'd like to sell copies of.

Hit Triangle.

Select which ones you want to sell using Circle.

Hit triangle again, then say yes to the prompt.

If I get that wrong, it's because it might be another button, but you can sell from that screen.

36
After further testing we found out that the present dropping phase is determined the seconds before the song starts. The game will autosave at the point it's generated, so...

When I did the initial tests, I rolled back to the beginning of the week, not the beginning of the song - It was a mistake in the testing I was using, although if you do the exact same actions, you WILL get the exact same result, which left me to draw that conclusion.

Once you lock into the song (Namely the moment it autosaves prior to the song load) the results of the drops are locked. Incidentally, this prevents 'p-drops' from being wasted if you lose power etc - the drops are already calculated in at that point, if you resume after quitting.

(So basically you could do some control and time dance to alter a 'bad result' but in all honesty, there's no way for you to know what magic combination is required to force a gold present.)

37
I'm only over 100 hours in, didn't have as much time to play as I would have liked so far. I had more time to play OFA when I first got that one. (Ended up playing 500+ hours on OFA.)

But anyways, PS has not held my interest like OFA did. The story behind OFA was a bit more in depth than PS, especially with the EX Episodes. I can say that PS has beautiful graphics (PS4 duh) and that the Stage4U! is amazing. Just would like a few more stages added and more interesting outfits as well, not just those god-awful recolors.

The real killer for me has been this drop system. I have finally naturally dropped one gold present from the DL Lives without the assist of p-drops. Since then nothing, Scamco really added these just for the money. I also believe that is a reason why the DLC catalogs have been so light so far. Namco probably thinks: "Yeah they have 2-3 DL Lives a month. That's good enough. We'll give them three songs, an outfit, and four accessories in the DLC."
I honestly believe that without the DL Lives we could of had more DLC content so far. I'm hoping that Namco sends out an update patch to increase the drop rates. Though this probably will not happen as less people with then buy p-drops and thus Scamco gets less money from us.

Does that mean the first outfit you get before the 'special' DL outfit you receive for EX Clearing the final live in the DL Live series? I'm going to try that method with the fourth DL Live to see if it increases my luck by any (probably won't).

I will say I am almost ready to get Hibiki to S-rank. Only 3 million more fans to go, not that much compared to the starting 10 million. If I play for at least 4 hours straight I can normally hit around 600,000 fans per idol. Though normally with work that makes it nearly impossible to get that amount of gameplay in. I normally average 2 - 2 1/2 hours a day. I work nights so I get home around 10 p.m and start livestreaming between 10:30 - 11 pm and try to stay awake long enough to play until 1 - 1:30 am. Though after playing the same song over and over I tend to get sloppy with the gameplay, mostly because my thumb goes numb, or because I'm getting bored and losing interest in the actual gameplay itself.

Actually as far as I can tell, OFA has something that Platinum Stars doesn't - you can only set costumes per team, not per idol. If you CAN set it per idol, I've not discovered yet how to do it, and my file is really close to maxing out.

If they skipped this particular feature, it would be a surprising step backward.

When it comes to statistical odds re: DL lives - it doesn't really matter if you do it at DL live step 1 or step 4. - Yes, you can argue that if you got the costume, your drops were wasted, but as there's no way to detect that BEFORE you commit to the drop usage, it's a case of 'now's a good a time as any' as a S ranked costume acquisition would basically mean you'd ace the DL live off the bat, and you're always in the running for the Silver present DL live p-drops if you do that live.

The absolutely fastest way to get idols is to do the level 3 fan gathering job (At 45k per time) to get 100k fans. You need 30 on the dice roll, so you'd want the DL Live 1 S ranked costume, and your best fan up accessory. This should accelerate your fan gain for one idol quickly, but at 45k per, it's also a lot of in game currency. It almost makes the DLC money actually worth something.

38
P-drops - The microtransaction that couldn't

Now we cover P-drops, Namco Bandai's way of trying to compensate for the fact it's 132 hours to finish the game on a 50% odds rate and about 68 hours to get all the items out of a DL live (Based on the last time I ran the math anyway) - and as I covered above, if you're not average luck or better, be prepared to be playing the game much longer.

Those who defend the current status quo will point out that the P-drops system is there for people  who are too impatient or don't have the time or have more money than brains.

At first glance it's true. This is how P-drops work:

- P-drops are consumables. You use them at the beginning of a live, where they get consumed.
- Each P-drop you use grants you +1 present to the live on completion of said live.
- Each P-drop adds a % to the probability that at the end of a live that a gold present will show.

Of course, now there's a few catches:

- Even though at max rank (Producer level 20) you can use 200 of them at once (Which is roughly 17k yen) this number is capped at some number not 100%. It is entirely possible that you do not get a gold present.
- You can only get ONE gold present per live. Any additional gold present that would be given to you will convert to silver presents instead.
- The gold present generated abides by the rules otherwise (it'll roll from the gold present drop list as per normal.)

What does this mean in reality?

The best time to use a set of P-drops is when you want to bypass the gold present drop rate of 1-0.1%

This sounds really useful until you realise you still only have a 1/10 chance  (For base game) or 1/6 (for DL live) to get a single item. You can't avoid this, because if you have your heart set on a item in the list, well...

This  in turn means that the best time to use the drops is at the BEGINNING of the drop cycle - namely before you get your first costume (Where the odds go up to 60%) or after you secure the costume but no accessories (Where the drop rate is 66% for any one item)

P-drops also have an additional chance to drop the accessories on silver presents IF the silver present was created with a P-drop - it'll contest all the other items in the regular silver list (so about 1/50) but it's per silver present, so it's 2% to turn up any of the accessories, and consequently 0.5% to turn up a specific one (4 accessories per DL live)

Regardless, the problem with the P-drops isn't the fact they don't work - it's the fact they're poor value for what you spend on them.

To get decent odds on a gold present you'd ideally want to spend 60 pdrops at a time. That's 5000 yen per live.

Sounds okay, until you consider that to buy out the entirety of catalog 2, WITH the DLC money, it'll set you back roughly 8000 yen, in a bundle.

Needless to say, the relative value is insanely low, for what you're spending.

39
How DID Platinum Stars end up being so grindy anyway? Why do so many people call it Platinum Grind? The odds can't seem THAT bad, can they? Why does everyone hate the DL lives so much? They're supposed to be free content!


We'll cover the questions here, as this requires you to understand the drop system.
The drop system - or what happens when you forget to put in a drop floor, and otherwise make several hundred bad assumptions

First things first - let's discuss game design.

When you're making a game a (good) game designer will have at least some sort of idea what the player experience should be like.

Namely, what they'll be doing, how they'll be doing it, and how long they'll do it for.

For Platinum Stars you're playing the rhythm game for say a couple hour at a stretch, mostly doing lives, which is the game proper, with a bit of watching storyline and the rest of it.

It's fairly unlikely you'll do so for much longer without taking at least a small break, because the game type requires actual concentration unless the game itself is actually too boring. You'll end up suffering fatigue, which will start to affect your scoring in Diva, as an example.

You could do multiple sessions (Say 10-12 hours of play in a 12) but then you'll have other things contesting, like sleep, work, or other things.

So what does this matter?

Pretty simple - you can figure out if the design was any good by using the known drop rates to calculate just how long they expected the player to actually play the game.

So how can we calculate this?

We can calculate the odds of NOT hitting once, until the number of times brings our total percentage to MISS below a certain number. (Basically, we're calculating how hard it is for us to fail not getting an item in a row for n attempts, until our statistical number gets low enough we 'hit once' namely, get the item and fail at missing in a row.)

So let's start with a simple one - We're expected to be perfectly average, so we believe that we'd hit all the necessary drops on the S rank regular items (We're not considering DL lives) by the end of the game. Note, you can get doubles, and getting doubles for the purposes of item completing (achievement/S4U) doesn't help us.

Now for reference, there's 1 F rank costume, and 1 S rank of each type (4) + 1 extra for cool, because for whatever reason there's 2 S rank cool costumes. In the 'Stuff we don't want catergory' there's 4 other items (S rank accessories) because we don't want them as they are grabbable once you hit S rank at a 100% rate.

So our chain becomes 6/10(0.01) + 5/10(0.01) + ... 1/10(0.01) (Assuming a 1/100 drop rate for a gold present)

As you can guess, that becomes 0.006, 0.005 and so on to 0.001

So our chance of failure (Namely we don't hit any of the combinations) is simple - you dock the resulting number from 1. In this case we have 0.994 (or 99.4%) chance of not getting anything.

Now to chain losses, we have to hit that 99.4% in a row twice. Namely, roll 99.4% or less two times in a row.
Which means the chances are 0.994 * 0.994 or 0.994 ^2 (Which is about 98.8% of the time)

So to calculate a 50% chance of us actually failing our 99.4% chance the math goes like this:

Solve: 0.994 ^ a < 0.50 with a being a whole number (as we can't have a fraction of an attempt, as that makes absolutely no sense)

I'm going to save you some trouble and tell you the answer - it's 116 attempts for a 50/50 chance to actually turn up the item.

Now, assuming attempt 116 gets us there... We still have 5 more items to grab. Which item we grabbed doesn't matter - we just grabbed one, and we don't want another copy (As that doesn't actually help us)

Summary? You'll do the other FIVE attempts. (Which will result in a (At 116), b, c, d, e and f)

which will result in b (0.995) = 139, c (0.996) = 173, d (0.997) = 232, e (0.998) = 347 and f (0.999) = 693 Assuming you want a 50% chance to turn it up every time (a coin toss)

So how many lives you need to do if you think you're dead average in your luck?

1584

Now, let's assume that you can complete 12 lives per hour (Basically one season end to end).

So to complete those 1584 lives, you'll need 132 hours.

And that's assuming you're average luck, and you hit the 50/50. Oh, and that the present drop rate is 1% (or 1 for every 100 lives).

Now what happens if I'm not that lucky (I'm a standard deviation out cause someone has to be, and require averages of 60% to hit, and the drop rate is in fact 0.7%? (We don't know what the true percentage is, but we can make a calculated guess somewhere along the line from someone.)

What's my forecast if I want to platinum or get access to all the S rank costumes?

I won't do all the math for you, I'll give you a starting point, and it'll demonstrate the point nicely:


For the FIRST hit (namely we need any of the 6 items out of 10) we have a 0.007 (as opposed to 1% or 0.01) chance of triggering a live that'll cough up the gold present.

Or more accurately 0.6*0.007 or 0.0042. Our second is 0.5 * 0.007 or 0.0035

Our first 'to miss' is now at 99.58% (0.9958), and our second is now 99.65% (0.9965)

Look at the 'to miss numbers, and try to match the first number closest to the miss percentage.

Then you realize that you're adding much larger numbers once you 'collect' the first.

In short? If you're remotely unlucky and/or the drop numbers we're assuming aren't the optimistic ones, you could be here for several THOUSANDS of plays easily. You better hope you're not unlucky, because you could be here for several HUNDRED thousand plays.

Just to platinum the game.

In short, the game design of 'a few hours a day' and the assumption just to 'be done' with it, the forecast is you're expected to put at least 132 hours in it. Assuming you're average with a perfect 50% rate and a 1% gold present drop rate.

And the first thing you learn is the thing about averages is that averages suggest that there's 50% of people out there who are simply not that lucky, and every percent massively curves the game length.

In short? If you're defending the current status quo, you are LITERALLY saying to 50% of the platinum stars playerbase that they deserve a much grindier experience than 132 hours, and that's just to be done with it.

It's going to be much more, mostly because most im@s games don't generally GET 100+ hours. Not even OFA did. You'll have a massive number of people who think they'll be able to be done and dusted in 50-70 hours, literally asking themselves 'How come I'm nowhere near DONE YET?'

40
You might have heard what I had to say about Platinum Stars, and depending what you are in it for, what you've heard will have varied, as well as the efforts a few of us have made to address the game. If you've heard what I had to say on the project-iM@s discord, most of this won't be new to you.


I'll start with the executive summaries - pick a category that describes the main reasons you'd want to play Platinum Stars.

I like rhythm games and im@s sounds like fun.

Platinum Stars is surprisingly easy, and can be considered an entry level rhythm game. The design of the game encourages the long haul, but you're far more likely to master the game's rhythm beat maps far sooner than the game intended to drop consumable content like unlocked songs, unlocked coordinates, and even unlocked difficulty. This isn't project Diva with the curveballs and the expected hundreds of practices to master, at least according to people I know who Osu/PD regularly, and unfortunately, the curves projected mean you're likely to master songs long before you reach S rank on anyone.


I like S4U and performances, or I want to make mashups/setups for other content

I've got some disappointing news for you - With a reasonable margin of error, we've calculated the rough drop rates of a gold present to be between 1% (one in a hundred) to 0.1% (one in a thousand).

S rank costumes from the game proper (Accessories have lives which have each individual S rank accessory lives that forcibly give you each of the S Accessories, and all the A rank and below items barring a F ranked costume will have lives that can unlock which give that specific item on completion) as well as a F costume (the trackwear) and DL Live accessories (Costumes can be forcibly dropped by completing the 4 DL lives in sequence.) can only be gotten by a gold present.

DL live accessories can ALSO be gotten from silver presents, but only if the silver present in question was generated by expending P-drops, and you still have to contend with the entire silver present drop list in the process.

Oh, and before I leave you thinking the odds stated above (1-0.1%) were the FINAL percentages, there's another thing coming - that is the fact that you have a 1/10 chance of getting the one costume you need (as opposed to a copy) for base game S rank (so it drops to 0.1% to 0.01%).

If you're curious if you're gunning for a DL live item, the odds stated are the same, except that upon getting a gold present, your odds are at 1/6 (As you can get the C costume in a gold present) assuming your game doesn't bug out and assume that gold present was in fact a normal one.  Your odds will drop to about 0.2% to 0.02%)

In short? Good luck. You're going to be here for a few hundred hours if you have your heart (or your creative) set on a particular item and you can't get it to forcibly drop. Surprisingly, buying P-drops to hurry this process up only improves the odds to 10% for S rank regular, and about 16.6% assuming you spend 5000 yen to use at least 60 drops to get better than even odds of a forced gold present. Be warned that if you throw the game's maximum (of 200) at a single live you still have a chance a gold present won't drop and end up with 200 silver or worse presents.

On the bright side, if that happens and you were taking a shot at the DL live, you have roughly 1/50 per present chance to get an accessory. This is purely estimated, because we actually don't know how many items are in the silver present pool competing with the DL live accessories.

Compared to other im@s games (50-80 hours to complete and unlock + DLC costs) PS may NOT be worth the trouble of migrating to.


How hard could it possibly be to platinum Platinum Stars anyway? (Achievement etc)

If you're thinking that because the game is easy, that the game would be easy to platinum, well...

You've got a little nasty surprise coming. To platinum the game, you have to complete all the base game content (DLC and DL live content is not included)

This means... doing each song until it reaches legend (Which I understand is a few hundred times for all, what 20 songs?), completing the in game costume catalog with one copy of every item, getting all 13 idols to S rank and a few other odds and ends.

Guess which one will take you the longest?

Surprisingly, it's not the play each song to legend, considering that at least doesn't have huge variances. Depending on drops, you can also get magazines that can hurry up a song's progress to Legend, and you may see a LOT of them.

Summary - don't. 300 hours in, and I haven't platinum-ed the game yet. There's some that's done it on roughly 200 hours, though, so it depends. Still, you'd be better served by another game.


I want to see more of 765!

Sadly, there just isn't enough content to justify it - there's a few beginning of day/end of day skits, and one event per rank up.

That doesn't sound so bad until you consider that on your climb from A rank to S rank, an idol needs 10 million fans. The fastest you can gain fans is through a level 3 fan job on a perfect gives you 100k + fan gain bonuses. Sounds great, until you realize that the score required for a perfect is 30, and you also need to cough up 45k per attempt.

The whole thing will still take a few minutes either way so don't think it's THAT fast. Expect to be pulling a lot of hours. 50+ is not unheard of.

Given that, trying see just one event might not be worth it, considering by now you could drift off to youtube or NND and see the events in question without having to expend that much time.


------

There's the executive summaries. In later posts I'll discuss the various aspects, as per the title, so you can see how I drew those conclusions.

41
THE iDOLM@STER Platinum Stars / Re: DL Lives
« on: August 23, 2016, 01:52:20 pm »
Ah, so we actually agree, you also say the DL lives are not an issue, it's a problem in the base mechanics. I was ALWAYS talking about just the DL lives, i wrote it severeal times, i also wrote several times that the low probability percentage item distribution sucks in my optionon and is legitemately criticized, but that has nothing to do with how many DL lives there are and if the items from the DL lives are recolors or not. The thread is called "DL lives", if you want to discuss the fundamental problem of the presents system, that should be done in a different thread.

That's also why i never defended the point of needing to spend a lot of time to get all items, because i completely agree with you. My point was always that having the DL lives as they are now, is the best method i can think of as long as nothing is changed in the base mechanics of the item distribution. The alternatives, namely having everything in one pool, or not having them at all, are both worse for people who want to have every single item to make videos. And for people who don't need all the DL live accessories, having more DL lives doesn't have any drawbacks at all.

Problem is that the current existence of the DL lives causes SIGNIFICANT issues with the longevity and viability of the game.

Essentially you're saying 'something is better than nothing'.

Not always.

Present a mountain that says 'If you crawl another 80 hours, you MAY get more options' after presenting another TWO mountains with the exact same premise, and you WILL lose people who will straight up go 'You know what? Screw this. I've better things to do apart from beat my head against a DL live'.

You want to scare someone in that scenario to quit? You show them ANOTHER mountain of optional content and go 'Well, if you spend 70 hours, you might turn up everything. Allegedly.'

In fact I'm talking with three people who have flat out said 'What's the point of playing the game at ALL?' and have flat out quit. The DL live mountains have exposed the rest of the game's issues, because the curves are easily calculated.

As I'd quote from one person:

'ok, now i'm looking into a way to automate this shit. 200 lives - 0 gold drop in a row is just fucking too much.'


Basically in our current iteration, it might actually pay dividends if they STOPPED releasing lives until either of the solutions I proposed were implemented, then carefully present in a way where the mountain that WILL be DL Live 4 isn't nearly as high, and the previous lives got their mountain size reduced accordingly.

Perception is reality, and right now, the DL lives are perceived as a massive problem. They're symptoms of a much deeper problem, but for those who are playing the lives and/or seeing someone else playing them, they ARE the problem.

Cause let's face it. 80+ hours for 66% chance to get the 4 DL accessories is downright inane. That's what everyone's seeing, and that's frankly the truth of the matter as far as we can determine.

So the problem with the core systems IS the DL live's problem, because they're the point where they're most clearly exposed - unlike the regular game, there's no 'catch all' where you can secure items normally exclusive to gold presents via a forced live drop (unlike say the S rank accessories, which at S rank have a live that will FORCIBLY drop 2 of them if you EX, regardless if you had any luck prior. I think the S rank costumes also get a similar catch all once you get certain idols to S rank).

The fact the accessories in a DL live DON'T get a forced drop means the drop system gets exposed, and well, you get to find out the math. The hard way, and so consequently DL lives ARE part of the problem, even though they aren't the CAUSE of the problem, and consequently why the core game mechanics matter so much as part of the DL live.

You can't separate the two, because DL lives don't WORK because the main system doesn't, and the main system's flaws show most clearly BECAUSE the DL lives are badly designed for the model used for the main game.


One solution may be to allow a live to show up at 120 repeats which will forcibly drop (at EX clear) a special present/card/item which will randomly spawn any ONE of the accessories which you don't have already. (If you already have all 4, you can't use the item, and can sell it for some small amount of money, but this would assume you want copies for levelling)

This would put the play ceiling at 600 lives (or roughly 50 hours of gameplay) as an absolute CAP.

50 hours is STILL a lot of time, but pdrops/luck etc would reduce this significantly, meaning natural luck helps, and p-drops still have significant value (So still works as a microtransaction, for people who don't want to do the live up to 600 times). Basically the 50 hours would be a hard cap, and would be the absolutely worst case scenario.

42
THE iDOLM@STER Platinum Stars / Re: DL Lives
« on: August 23, 2016, 12:06:18 pm »
You are strawman arguing and you know it. I have stated solutions, and your demand to 'answer the question' shows you actually believe the base premises that NBEI have made, or you do not (or do not WANT TO) understand the actual problem.

One shows arrogance. The other shows ignorance. Which one would you like me to expose?

For one, I'm going to make it very clear (As I have several posts in a row) the problem isn't the DL lives, it is the model which the drop system is designed off.

The DL live system would work fine (for various definitions of fine, I suppose but that's a matter of modelling), but the base assumptions that they used are either flawed (namely, they assumed that the real life spread would be far less than they ended up being) or they really wanted to go in for the long haul (namely that 2-4 hours a day, every day for a year for 50/100% completion at roughly 66%)

The first is a probability oversight and can be corrected by increasing the rate and introducing a present drop floor. The second is scary, and needs to be corrected by reevaluating what the expected PS player would actually be DOING over the course of six months or a year, then adjusting the drop rates so they reasonably match the actual expected within a deviation or two.

If you attempt to straw man the argument again, (Cause this is already the second time in as many posts AFTER pushing forward two posts of insults) you've demonstrated that you're not actually interested in a discussion and are trying to push a narrative without an iota of respect, and you will be given the amount of respect as you are due.

You can keep the DL live system as is, actually, if you modelled completion to something relatively SANE. 80 hours or more PER EVENT is not sane by any measure, and you know it, because you haven't attempted to defend that point.

Don't push your luck further.

Seriously, if you're going to claim moral high ground, could you at least check it's outside of artillery range FIRST?

43
THE iDOLM@STER Platinum Stars / Re: DL Lives
« on: August 23, 2016, 10:21:06 am »
setsuna, all your calculations are based on one mistake and let's keep it mathematical since you seem to like it so much:

Let's say, someone wants to make a video with all items from a DL live. Let's say, that someone is so impossibly lucky that he gets all the items with just 4 lives, which is theoretically possible, but the probability of that happening is almost 0. Now let's assume that DL live didn't exist, the probability of being able to make that video is exactly 0, even with investing hundreds of hours.

If there never were DL lives to begin with, you wouldn't be complaining about this right now, you are complaining about getting more possibilities for your videos, even if this possibility is incredibly low. And 2 out of the 6 items are even guaranteed after 4 lives.

And again: are you guys telling me that because of the people who want to make videos with items that wouldn't exist at all otherwise, the vast majority of people who doesn't want to make these videos should not get the DL lives?

And btw: you are way way luckier than i am with your drops, i'd love to have so much luck with getting gold drops as you do, from what you wrote (16 presents with 1000 lives) you got 3 times as many as i did (2 out of 450 lives).

Edit: Just to be clear: I completely agree that the drops rates are way too low and that i don't like the method the DL live accessories are delivered at all, but it doesn't change the fact that the DL lives are content that otherwise would be missing completely, and i'd rather take the 33% of it (2 guaranteed out of 6 items) than 0% of it if they didn't exist at all.

Nice try except that we're not dealing in the maybe, we're dealing with the now. You can't strawman the 'But if we didn't get the DL Lives' to ME in particular, because I already knew about them six months prior to the game's release, and was already enacting plans AROUND these lives with internal information.

There's 3 DL lives activated. There's another 9 scheduled. THIS is the reality we're dealing with (And yes, the idea was planned. I was warned about it, although the version they ran with was significantly blunted - originally, they were supposed to be on rotation in 2 week periods, to drive p-drop sales. They balked once they saw the backlash. (There's a reason why there's a warning that the lives may disappear without notice in that blog. It's an internal matter with NBEI.)

And yes, the data's on disc with remote activation on PSN. It's been part of the design for months. If you're bored and want to test it, just disconnect your PS4 from the internet. Unless they patched it recently, you'll find that the DL live presents won't work even if you do a DL live and you'll draw from the regular gold present pool instead. (It might take you a while to test it though, since you're not allowed to spend p-drops while disconnected from PSN. On release, the game would actually disable DL Live 1 from being accessed at all if you didn't connect within a day or so.)

You can't cheat this system though, as it won't accept any time unless it's sent through PSN (as it grabs the JP Tokyo server's clock upon running any live as part of the p-drops check) although if you could theoretically spoof the PSN clock, you could actually force the other 9 lives (or at least the 9 I'm AWARE of) from the game disc to run immediately.

In short? You can't put the theoretical of 'Well if the DL lives didn't exist we wouldn't have any content...' only because this was part of the Platinum Stars DESIGN. In short, they made a concerted effort to extend the length of the game.

As I said, the idea was sound, the execution was poor because of several major baseline assumptions and a failure to understand what happens with low % odds without a floor put into place.


And I also addressed the numbers. There's a flaw with yours:

You know those two costumes (The C and the S costumes)? They're in the GOLD present cycle for the DL Live. You get a flat 1/6 (1/7 with the E/F costume bug, although it's not known if they occupy more than one additional slot, and I've received one of 3 different ones, so it could actually shoot out to 1/10) to receive a specific DL live accessory.

That's after the odds on getting a gold present to drop, which is governed by the % chance a major appeal note will be registered during a live performance.

It is common (and it's happened to me THREE TIMES, 2 S ranks and a C) to get a costume associated with the DL live. You in fact can get the DL live's S BEFORE you complete DL Live part 4, and ironically, you can even get it before part 1 even if you fail part 1 due to insufficient score (Usually helped by using p-drops to artificially boost the rate of big appeals), meaning if you're lucky enough (or paid enough), you don't have to suffer the penalty for more than one attempt, and the DL live becomes trivial as you have the required costume.

Of course you could end up with 3 of the costume, and NO accessories after 3 gold presents. I guess it sucks to be you if that happens.


You didn't read that bit in the earlier responses, because if you did, you'd have tried to address those notes.

And your notes also show a demonstrated lack of understanding of statistics. I talk in Standard Deviations (Namely an accepted base + rough estimates of what would be considered well outside the median) because there is NO WAY to control 'who gets lucky and who gets shafted'

Someone out there is statistically going to do the near impossible.

Someone ELSE out there is also going to do the other end of the near impossible.

Here's the flaw of your argument when you claim it doesn't matter - Someone who made videos for OfA. im@s2, im@s 1/L4U, SP, Arcade, DS or anything else doesn't get to pick WHICH END they end at. It's a black box, and they can end up anywhere.

If we could, we'd try our damned hardest to PICK the winning end of the extreme, but alas, we can't. Other forces (namely the PS4's seed, time of day we made the save, producer name, PSN account name and a raft of other stuff) will determine that, and although we can alter the odds very slightly, we don't know HOW to (because we aren't told what affects the seeds that influence the appeals in game to give big appeals on any given note to get enough to force a gold present to drop) so most of it is as blind luck as we can make it, and whatever NBEI's baseline is.


As I said, the problem with the design is mostly the numbers.

The problem isn't the model per se - it's the fact the numbers didn't come with a floor. There's a few ways to address the lack of a floor (Such as PRNG where all misses will increment the chance up for a future hit until it hits, then reset again upon a hit back to its base) but they're not present for now.

Either we accept that they forgot to insert a floor or we have to accept their assumptions when making their model - That they really DO want us playing 4 hours a day for an ENTIRE YEAR to stand roughly 66% chance to get all the DL items.

Think about that for a moment.

28 hours a WEEK.

That's easily most casual jobs. Heck, it's close to what I'm working for at the moment.

You have got to be kidding that's a good assumptive baseline. For something you've been told is free, and you're spending enough hours to call it a job. For a ~66% chance to experience all the content.

For an idea, BLIZZARD don't count on you playing 4 hours a day every day (Tuesday Maintenance for starters) for dailies. They model on from my discussions about 2h30m. (2 hours to complete dailies, 30 minutes for other stuff, not including Raids etc)

Let me emphasize again - Blizzard, you know the guys who made WoW and would presumably know more about MMOs and long play better than either of us just due to sheer experience modeled their MMO around an expectation that 'daily tasks' are at MOST 2 hours and 30 minutes.

Even mobages in Asia don't count on 3 hours of game time over a course of the day without significant AP/energy expenditure, and they're social games closer to Platinum Stars' base design. You get whales who will spend for more energy/AP, but the base model? God no.

There's a significant amount of fudge factor (Cause I'm collecting data from all the people I know who play so my data is not going to be more than a spitball) but 4 hours a day, every day for a year? That's 'You're playing a Korean MMORPG' territory.

Applied to a SINGLE PLAYER GAME with very little interaction with the outer world.


If you don't see the actual absurdity involved in the above statement, let's put a bit MORE perspective. (or at the very least, can I have some of whatever you're smoking?)

If this sort of time was put into League of Legends, DotA Counterstrike, or any other multiplayer vs game, you'd be putting in this sort of time and you'd be expected to be in the top 5% of the playerbase by the other end of the year.

If this was a MMORPG, you would be expected to after all the hours, be in a high end guild, and running end game content.

Hell, if you put this level of practice into Project Diva, you should be able to Perfect a few extreme songs.

If you're expecting THAT profile out of a single player game and believe more than a tiny fraction would actually complete the profile, you have to be an incredibly patient gamer and believe everyone else is like you, or certifiably insane or at least a very, VERY persistent bastard/bitch and believe everyone else is like you.

Even the likes of Xenogears or other megalong jRPGs wouldn't break 150 hours to get every last bit of content.

To expect 300-400 hours as a norm to get 50% of the released content?

Yeah, you might see there's a bit of a problem with the design. As I said, the design is fine - it's the numbers IN that assumption which are completely shot.

(I'd argue that 300-400 hours should be what's expected to 100% the content, tops (Namely, there should be actual catchalls preventing you from missing content at that point). You're already risking sanity and brand saturation and lack of future positive response for running a game primarily about MUSIC that long.

But you're telling me that the model is fine for people listening to say a 20 large, maybe 40 (If we include all DLC) in a loop (assuming they play each song in sequence) 72000 times?

Or more accurately 1800 times EACH? Roughly 67.5 hours of each song repeatedly?

Like I said, you have no appreciation about what the numbers MEAN, which makes your statements a flat out insult to a LOT of people.

44
THE iDOLM@STER Platinum Stars / Re: DL Lives
« on: August 23, 2016, 08:52:42 am »
@setsuna: all that is completely irrelevant if you don't want to make a catalog, or make videos with every possible item out there. How many people does that concern? Most probably less than 1%, probably even less than 0.1%

@reikuo: all this, while valid, has nothing to do with the DL lives, or more precisely whether the items you get from DL lives are recolors or not. In fact the DL lives help with what you are saying by adding more A rank lives with probably all different costume requirements.

And if that's your statement, you didn't actually read more than a few words of what I said.

From what I can tell, your statement is as follows:

"All those people on nico who create M@Ds, derivative content, fanfiction, pictures? Screw them, they don't matter. My perspective matters more than all those people who make things."

"Also 'screw anyone outside my 66% You're unlucky and bad, and you deserve it, because the system is fine for me."

Thank you for making the declaration, particularly without addressing how the numbers affect people not you.


It also shows a HUGE amount of ignorance on your half, because you don't understand basic math, let alone actual probability, and it shows a lack of perspective, because you just demonstrated you have no idea what 1200 gaming hours will end up looking like (As I'm aware there's 12 DL lives). Even 600 (Which would net you just HALF the DL live content, if that) is utterly insane for a benchmark.

If you honestly believe your average im@s fan is going to run 600 hours on lives (at 12 lives per hour, which is oh, about 7200 individual songs which is I think safely 'Holy crap that's a lot of songs on repeat') over the course of the lifetime of PS (or even within a year) to get a median 50% of the DL live content, I don't know what your baseline is. 600 hours assumes you're playing for just under 2 HOURS A DAY, EVERY DAY FOR A YEAR, rain, hail, shine, work, classes, acts of god or anything else. (To be precise, you're playing ~ 98 minutes, or 19 songs a DAY, assuming each one took 5 minutes from week start to week end.)

Let those numbers sink in. You play the game for 2 hours a day, every day, and you stand a 66% chance of getting HALF the content from the DL lives (and from my intel there's at least 12 of them.)

You'd need to double that to get 66% odds to get all the DL lives in a year. That isn't a guarantee, but the bet you won't fall more than one standard deviation from unlucky.


Since you didn't even consider the numbers, I've provided some perspective for you. I hope I didn't make your dismissive statement look completely ludicrous in the process.

You've already given a middle finger to 33% of the people that play Platinum Stars. We appreciate the indifference and arrogance you've demonstrated towards us.

I guess if we just so happen to not be lucky, we're expected to pay more for the same material? Those people just need to get on your level? Get good?


Now, let's go further.

So how much of the free content are we supposed to experience anyway? 30% 40% 50%?

THAT is the rough estimate of the median content people will get. That's the C costume, the S costume (if they get that far, depending if you have end game idols or not, well...) and 1 accessory. If you have 2, you're lucky.

So is your answer 'Well, you can have it free, but only some of it?'

Thanks for letting the REST of us (who may not ever devote 20+ hours on a DL live. let alone the median of 80!) know that you hate all but the elite lucky, who will be able to get 2 or more of the accessories (without doubling up remember, because getting an item doesn't mean you can't get it AGAIN!) within the <20 hour window per DL live.

I'll help you with the score keeping - You've just stuck up the middle finger and told them they don't matter to roughly 75% of the ENTIRE Platinum Stars Player Base.

But that's okay. You're happy with it, so basically everyone else is wrong right?


Now since you don't understand the numbers or how they panned out, I'm sure you're just comfortable in explaining to people who make video 'Well, you don't need everything after all, I mean 50/50 is enough to make your videos. You'll just be fine."

So what happens if a creator wanted to make a video using the cat ears of DL Live catalog 1, and his 40% ended up being the foot accessory?

"Oh well, bad luck to him? His video won't matter."

"What about the guy who wanted to use the bat wings and one of the costumes to do a vampire MAD? He got the ears and the ring. He's gotten enough content."

"He's just bad for not playing it enough. He's not in the lucky 25%"

So those videos will just have to be delayed until they're good enough to turn up the required DL item (Which I might add is a gold present at ~1/7, no problem)

... Just what do you think drives part of the fanbase? REALLY?


Apparently unless you're good enough to land what you want, when you want it, we have no rights to discuss OR criticize the model used. (Like I said, the problem isn't the model per se, but the assumptions behind the model. When you look at the numbers, NBEI's assumptions are downright SCARY. Expectations of 4 hours a day for a YEAR for a single player video game is... uh, you're not playing a game at that point, you're demanding mastery of a skill.)

Regardless, I'll pass on the message to a few of the creators at NND, and I'll let them consider your statement. They might be a while of course, so you might have the time to craft an apology if you're fast enough. Or at least a retraction, because they might be collectively upset at you SPECIFICALLY for being such a bonehead and waving them all off.

45
THE iDOLM@STER Platinum Stars / Re: DL Lives
« on: August 23, 2016, 03:16:06 am »
Are the drop rates for the DL Lives lower than normal lives or have I just been getting lucky with normal lives?
I've done ~600 regular lives and haven't really had any issues with drops. I get silver presents pretty frequently and have gotten around 15 gold presents total (Just missing the leg accessory at this point).
Only thing is I am on a US account so I can't use P-Drops, though I'm not sure if that factors in.

I'd kill for your luck. We're working on a particularly small sample size, (There's not that many people playing Platinum Stars, basically) but you've gotten more in 600 lives than I've managed over the course of roughly twice that. This includes 2 gold presents I forced out via p-drop use.

Also, DL live drops use a different drop table (Which is not shown). It's known at this point that any of the 6 (The S rank, the C rank, and any of the 4 accessories) can show up, and it's not known if it's a glitch or not, but you can turn up any of the F or E costumes out of a gold present too.

None of the regular gold present items will show if you're doing the DL live. All the silver ones use the regular drop system, but apparently they added the chance (might have glitched) where you can get the DL live accessories out of a silver present.

It could be that there's a region compensation - we were speculating that, but it's very difficult to measure, mostly cause we'd need people to sacrifice huge amounts of time to test the theory.

(Namely, JP, KR and China (When China releases) accounts have lower drop rates to drive p-drop purchases.)

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