what about if you ignore the extra drops from the DL lives and just go for the Platinum Trophy instead?
Assuming you don't alter the odds with a bronze card rigging? Pretty low maxing it out (assuming the max is 99 of course)
If you want it to beat a level 1 S rank tiara, you need 41 levels to do it (As it's +1, not +2) and 61 to beat a level 10 S rank tiara
Getting 10 is easy enough (making the S rank tiara your best short term option, since there's a guaranteed live drop of said tiara) so if you want a quick boost, hold onto all the cloths and use them all once you get the S tiara.
Of course, buffing the F tiara 40 times means you get ALL the memory appeal boost levels in the one item at the same level as a entry level S tiara, allowing you a bit more flexibility in your setup. Buffing up the tiara beyond 60 levels (ie at level 61+) means the tiara is your best item bar nothing.
The odds are roughly about 10 to 15% per live of getting a regular present (so about 10 to 15 times more likely over a gold present) averaged over a full year (as you're incredibly likely for scoring multiple regular presents in a single live) and you have a 1/42 chance of landing the polisher (which sort of evens it out and then some)
You have an additional 1 in 42 chance of getting the bronze card with a regular present.
The card shows up in a silver present, at a 1 in 36 chance, with a roughly 1/3 chance compared to a regular present of dropping in the first place (Haven't been taking statistical notes on this one).
You need 5 cards to cash in at the shop, and it's unknown what items are in the bronze card pool. What we DO know is that said pool is not the same as the actual regular present pool (Some items are missing, and some silver present items show up) so it's a bit of a guess there. I'd wager at least a 1 in 20, if not 1 in 30.
Given this is directly manipulable, (You can, with persistence, constantly use them and reset until you turn up the said item) the statement I put above stands.
Given those odds, and the calculations made previously, you stand about a 50/50 chance of turning up enough bronze cards to brute force 60 of the item to buff up your accessory before you platinum the game by finding all the S ranked costumes (since the hardest thing in the regular game is to get the S ranked costumes in the regular game) and in regular play.
You WILL turn up a LOT of the bronze cards. 495 might be tricky, but remember every of the accessory item you find is 5 less of the cards you need to find!
If you're NOT brute forcing via manipulation the accessory upgrade, your odds of turning 60 of them drop to 1% or so assuming the main game. Getting 40 is somewhat more reasonable with a roughly 20% chance (Mostly due to the fact that you're rolling regular presents AND the cards, which sort of curve probability a bit if you're trying to find 20 less of them in the same timeframe.)
In short? It's not that bad in terms of odds. I've not been brute forcing the accessory item, and I'm only 5 DL lives out, and I'm beyond the 40 mark (by +6 actually, since it's the only thing I use the cloth on). If I actually cared about the tiara, I could have easily cleared 200 of the things (Since my bronze card usage count is nearly 1000, and I've seen about 5 of the item show up as a bronze card use total.)
If you include the hours required to do a DL live, remember that each DL live you want to unlock all the accessories for adds about 72 hours (assuming 50% luck with each deviation adding another 25% to the hour time) which in turn adds about 50% to the number of hours required. I've done the first 5 (Working on the costume for the current one and an accessory for the one behind that) and my hour count just cleared 762 hours (in short, I'm in the bottom 25% luck wise at the moment)
