Sounds good. I'll PM you more details later on once we conclude the project with a success or a give.

For now I picked up another 8 bottles, for 1032 yen. This means we now have the whole cast except for Miki, whose bottle they were out of. I'll try again to pick up that one last authorized bottle another day if we need it. (so currently: 11 out of 12).

When I got home, I tried four times out of the eight and lost on all. For now I'm going to bank the remaining four tries we have and spend them a little later, trying different days and times of day. I have no idea what the algorithm behind winning this thing is, so changing the time of spinning the garapon may or may not help.... but it certainly can't hurt.

For further fun, you need like

Okay, so if we assume 12 rolls gives enough for a 50% of scoring at least 1...

We're looking at a win rate of roughly 5% per single item, and that's assuming 12 gives a 50/50 chance of scoring 1.

Yep, long odds are fun odds. At 1500ish hundred yen, that's 30 AUD, which is a bit excessive, but I can deal.

The sad part is, I suspect those odds are WAY too high. I get the feeling the win rate on any given spin is 1%, meaning that you have a 12% chance of scoring 1 DLC code with 12 spins of the lottery.

(For calculations, I'm assuming the reverse position (namely the percentage you don't score) and calculating the single route where you fail every time)

The fun part is if you assume that these are the odds across the board.

You'd be buying green tea by the boxes to get enough for 12 tries for the concert. (You'd need 240 green tea for 12 attempts)

That's like 15000 yen, and that only guarantees you anything from under 50% to 12% (At 1% chance per roll) or just 2% (at 0.1% chance per roll) to try and win the grand prize.

The fun part is if you assume a 0.1% chance per roll - Getting 3 times the 240 green tea (Drink it 3 times a day for like 9 months) in points would only just over double your chances (to 4%) of winning.

I'm pretty sure at 48000ish yen, you might as well buy concert tickets yourself.